UEFA Champions League New Format: Discriminant Analysis of Match Performance Indicators Differentiating Direct Qualifiers, Play-Off Qualifiers, and Eliminated Teams in the League Phase

Abstract

 This study aims to identify in-game variables that distinguish team performance in the new UEFA Champions League group stage format, which was introduced in the 2024/2025 season. The research was conducted within the scope of a descriptive research model, and data from a total of 288 matches played in the league stage during the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 seasons were analyzed. Teams were divided into three groups: direct qualifiers, play-off qualifiers, and teams eliminated from the tournament. Technical and tactical performance indicators were obtained from the OPTA database, transferred to the SPSS 27 program, and separate discriminant analysis was applied for each season to determine the distinguishing variables between the groups. According to the findings, in both seasons, the variable of teams scoring the first goal in the match was determined to be the performance indicator with the highest discriminative power between the groups. In the 2024/2025 season, the number of shots on target also emerged as an important distinguishing variable, while in the 2025/2026 season, the market value of the team roster and the number of fouls committed were among the determining factors. The correct classification rates of the discriminant functions were calculated as 84.4% and 83.3%, respectively. In conclusion, it can be said that the key factors determining success in the new league format are early scoring superiority, offensive efficiency, squad quality, and disciplined play.